Phase Four of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is in the books and Phase Five is getting ready to make its debut. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will be the film that takes the next step in the larger Marvel Studios story, and based on early estimates a lot of people will be in the theater to see it when it opens, as the film is currently tracking to make more than $100 million in its first weekend.
Box Office Pro is currently projecting an opening weekend for Quantumania of somewhere between $98 million and $128 million. That’s not a number that’s going to break any records for Marvel Studios, but it would be a record for the Ant-Man franchise specifically, following in the footsteps of the fourth Thor film, which also put up its best numbers with its most recent entry.
The first Ant-Man had the second lowest opening weekend of any Marvel film back in 2015, ahead only of The Incredible Hulk. Ant-Man and the Wasp put up a respectable $75 million when it opened in 2018. Both movies had solid international numbers, however, and Quantumania is getting a release in China, which is very good news for the global box office.
It will, however, be a significant step down for MCU movies of late. Even if Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania exceeds expectations and does $130 million or more, it will still be the lowest opening weekend for Marvel Studios since the pandemic. Thor: Love and Thunder opened with nearly $145 million and the last Marvel release, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, exceeded $180 million. Still, the film is on track to make more money than basically anything else coming out in February and it will all but certainly be successful and profitable.
Certainly, Ant-Man and the Wasp are not the most popular character in all of Marvel, so it’s not necessarily surprising that Quantumania isn’t going to set records. At the same time, the appearance of Jonathan Majors as Kang means the movie will likely be required viewing for anybody that wants to keep up on the larger MCU story. Kang will be the main villain of the next Avengers movie, so anybody who wants to keep up on that story will want to watch this one.
The question is how many people will feel the need to go to the theater to follow the story. Marvel movies have routinely been arriving on Disney+ after only a couple of months, so many might not feel a particular push to go back to the theater. Anybody who wants to watch the new Ant-Man who has Disney+ will be able to do so before the next MCU movie comes out, so there isn’t necessarily a massive rush.
